TLDR:
- Trump and Harris debate without mentioning crypto or Bitcoin
- Bitcoin price dropped 1-3% following the debate
- Prediction markets show a shift favoring Harris post-debate
- Trump has courted crypto community, while Harris’ stance remains unclear
- Polymarket saw $14 million in debate-related bets
The first presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris took place on September 10, 2024, with notable implications for financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
Despite the growing importance of digital assets in the political and economic landscape, neither candidate addressed crypto or Bitcoin during the nearly two-hour event.
The debate focused on traditional topics such as foreign policy, immigration, and abortion rights. This omission of crypto discussion came as a surprise to many in the industry, especially considering Trump’s recent efforts to court the crypto community.
Since early 2024, Trump has been positioning himself as a pro-crypto candidate, promising to pardon Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht and pledging to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on his first day in office if elected.
In contrast, Harris has yet to clearly articulate her stance on digital assets. Following President Biden’s withdrawal from the race, the Harris campaign indicated a desire to “reset” the Democratic Party’s relationship with crypto.
However, her staffing choices suggest a potential continuation of the Biden administration’s policies towards the industry.
Market Reacts
The crypto market reacted to the debate outcome, with Bitcoin experiencing a drop of 1-3% in the hours following the event.
Bitcoin’s price fell from around $58,000 to $56,600, before recovering slightly to over $57,000. This decline coincided with shifts in prediction markets favoring Harris.
Prediction markets played a significant role in gauging public sentiment around the debate. Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, saw a notable shift in odds.
Prior to the debate, Trump held a slight lead with 53% compared to Harris’ 46%. Post-debate, both candidates were tied at 49% each, representing a seven-point swing. PredictIt, a non-crypto prediction market, showed an even more pronounced shift, with Harris’ odds rising to 56% and Trump’s falling to 47%.
The debate also sparked substantial betting activity on Polymarket, with approximately $14 million wagered across 20 different markets related to the event.
This figure far exceeded the $2.5 million in bets placed on the earlier Biden-Trump debate. Bettors speculated on various outcomes, including whether the candidates would shake hands and specific phrases they might use during the debate.
In the broader financial markets, the debate’s outcome appeared to trigger a risk-off sentiment. Asian markets and U.S. stock futures experienced a downturn, while the Japanese yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar, reaching its highest level since January.
Trump-themed Political Finance (PoliFi) tokens saw significant losses following the debate, with some dropping by over 20%. Conversely, a Harris-themed token experienced a modest gain, reflecting the market’s perception of the debate’s outcome.
