TLDR:
- XRP exchange balances hit historic lows, falling sharply below the price structure line.
- Over one billion XRP withdrawn in three weeks, indicating strong accumulation trends.
- Supply crunch reduces market liquidity, making prices more sensitive to buying pressure.
- Historical trends suggest XRP could outperform BTC if current outflow patterns continue.
XRP exchange balances are falling at a historic pace, raising concerns about a developing supply squeeze across major trading platforms.
On-chain metrics from Glassnode show that more than one billion XRP has exited exchanges within the last three weeks. This drop has pushed the green supply line far below the price structure for the first time, creating a market condition where available liquidity is shrinking faster than usual.
The movement suggests that a large share of XRP is being shifted to private custody. This pattern often appears when long-term holders, institutional buyers, or OTC participants seek to secure tokens outside centralized venues.
With less XRP circulating on exchanges, the market becomes more reactive to buying interest, creating conditions where price movement can accelerate once demand rises.
Exchange Outflows Point to Tightening Market Liquidity
Analyst Diana stressed that XRP’s latest supply retreat marks one of the sharpest recorded phases of outflows.
She noted that the current structure shows the green exchange balance line dropping well under the price chart for the first time. This separation indicates that circulating supply is falling at a rate that leaves fewer tokens ready for immediate trading.
She added that periods like this often align with institutional positioning, ETF-driven allocation, and silent accumulation through OTC channels.
These activities remove accessible supply and can reduce market depth. As a result, buying activity may push prices faster because there is less liquidity to absorb orders during active sessions.
Her analysis also mentioned that such supply tightening usually appears before it becomes visible on price action.
Traders often monitor these early shifts because they reflect structural changes that shape market behavior during future rallies.
Cycle-Based Projections Re-emerge as Analysts Compare Past Trends
Analyst JAVONMARKS reviewed XRP’s historical performance during times when its structure signaled renewed strength.
He referenced an earlier cycle where XRP outpaced Bitcoin by more than two hundred percent and delivered a strong price expansion. His evaluation focused on how current conditions resemble previous setups where XRP later showed broad outperformance.
“MORE THAN $14 FOR 1 XRP” ⚡️
When $XRP outran Bitcoin by over 240%, prices of XRP rose by over 570%!
With XRP looking set to outrun BTC by over 600% this time around, we could see prices climb by at-least that amount, resulting in a price point of MORE THAN $14 FOR 1 XRP… https://t.co/9DP9OBrLBi pic.twitter.com/vhlhhYiY8g
— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) December 10, 2025
He explained that if XRP matches or exceeds past relative strength, the asset could advance toward higher valuations during the next acceleration phase.
His projection pointed to levels above fourteen dollars if similar percentage gains take shape, although the assessment was based on historical reference points rather than forward certainty.
The combined commentary from analysts shows growing attention on the recent supply trend.
With exchange balances continuing to fall and long-term holders absorbing available liquidity, XRP enters a phase where tightened supply conditions may influence upcoming market behavior.
