TLDR:
- MSCI may remove Strategy from major indexes, but expected market impact appears limited and partly priced.
- Bitwise CIO says Strategy holds enough cash to manage interest costs without selling Bitcoin.
- Strategy’s first significant debt maturity arrives in 2027, easing immediate pressure concerns.
- Strategy’s Bitcoin remains above its average purchase cost, reducing fears of forced liquidation.
Strategy’s Bitcoin position remains a topic of debate as investors watch for MSCI’s January decision. The upcoming ruling could remove digital asset treasury firms from major benchmarks.
Market questions have intensified as Strategy continues to hold a large Bitcoin reserve. Concerns over forced selling are growing, yet the Bitwise CIO offers a different view based on current data.
Bitwise CIO on Strategy and the MSCI Saga
According to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, Strategy could face removal from MSCI’s investable indexes after the firm signaled concerns over digital asset treasury companies.
The index provider argued that these firms resemble holding companies rather than operating businesses. Strategy has pushed against this view, citing its software division and financial structure around Bitcoin.
Hougan noted that the outcome could go either way based on MSCI’s methodology.
Hougan referenced estimates suggesting index-linked funds may need to sell as much as $2.8 billion in Strategy stock if the company is excluded. He added that similar events have produced smaller market reactions than expected.
Market behavior around its Nasdaq-100 inclusion last year showed minimal price impact despite heavy flows. Hougan suggested that some of the current price weakness may already reflect expectations of removal.
He stated through his CIO memo that long-term valuation depends more on execution than index placement.
Hougan also emphasized that near-term swings tied to index flows tend to be limited. The stock, he said, is more influenced by broader market direction and Bitcoin performance. Current trading levels appear aligned with general market positioning.
There are lots of things to worry about in crypto. Michael Saylor and Strategy selling bitcoin is not one of them.
My latest CIO Memo — “No, Virginia, Strategy Is Not Going to Sell Its Bitcoin” — is linked below.
— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) December 4, 2025
Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings and Debt Timeline
Hougan addressed growing speculation over whether Strategy may need to liquidate Bitcoin. He said fears of forced selling appear unfounded based on the company’s debt obligations.
Strategy holds $1.4 billion in cash, enough to cover interest requirements for roughly 18 months. The first major debt maturity arrives in 2027, far beyond immediate market pressure.
He referenced Strategy’s $60 billion Bitcoin reserve, which continues to trade above its average acquisition cost. Hougan added that past periods of discount pricing did not lead to selling.
Strategy’s voting structure also grants Michael Saylor strong control, reducing the likelihood of pressure to unwind holdings. The firm maintained its position during heavier market stress in 2022.
Hougan said the “doom loop” scenario circulating among traders relies on incorrect assumptions about cash flow and timing. Current BTC levels sit well above Strategy’s long-term average cost basis.
He noted that the company has operational runway that removes any near-term liquidation trigger. Strategy continues to follow its long-established approach despite rising volatility.
