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Supply In Profit
As we approach bitcoin price all-time highs, we will start to see the percentage of circulating supply in profit climb up to 100%. More importantly, we will see long-term holder supply climb to higher profit ranges. Since long-term holders are driving the market with 81% of circulating supply, their profit-taking behavior is key to identifying when the market may cool down as price starts to rip up to new highs. Long-term holders realizing huge profits into previous ATHs signaled the spot market cooling down as derivatives markets took over.
Currently, 95.2% of all bitcoin supply is in profit. During bull cycle top run-ups, supply can exist over 95% in profit for several weeks before healthy drawdowns. Even after these drawdowns, the larger trend can exist for months during bull cycles.
Source: Glasnode
Supply In Loss
The bitcoin supply in loss has hit a six-month low. This further shows how little stands in the way between new all-time highs; any holder that wishes to exit at breakeven cost will likely have the opportunity over the coming days/weeks ahead.
With the feverish increase in holdings by long-term holders since the middle of 2021, the percentage of supply held by said holders continues to break all-time highs.
A different (inverse) look, showing the percentage of short-term holder supply, shows the historic supply squeeze currently taking place. Historically, when short-term holder supply approaches approximately 20%, a bitcoin move upwards is in play. The proverbial spring looks to be as coiled as ever.
